CELAYA SOLUTIONS RESEARCHCORRIDOR / FIELD PAPER

// Civic accountability research · CORRIDOR

The Data Center Decade on the Border

El Paso committed public land, desert water, and new grid capacity to hyperscale applied intelligence. This is a grounded account of what was promised, what was actually signed, and the single contract term that decides whether the bet pays.

Abstract

In December 2023 the El Paso City Council unanimously approved a tax abatement to bring a Meta data center to a 1,000 acre parcel in the Northeast. Two years and one applied intelligence boom later, that project has grown from a 1.5 billion dollar facility into a 10 billion dollar, one gigawatt campus, with a dedicated natural gas power plant being built to run it and a permit to draw up to 1.5 million gallons of water a day in a desert.23

The public arrived late, and loudly. In May 2026 the Council voted unanimously to stop recruiting future hyperscale projects; in June it spent seven hours hearing residents before voting, five to three, that it could not legally walk away from the deal it had already signed.514

This paper sets out the verified record on all three projects CORRIDOR tracks, presents the strongest version of both the booster and the critic case, and then names the load bearing finding: net benefit is not decided by jobs or investment headlines. It is decided by deal structure. The decisive term is the combination of an eighty percent, fifteen year abatement with a binding floor of fifty permanent jobs, and the real cost is the opportunity cost of public inputs that were committed before the public could weigh in.

01

The record, dated

Three hyperscale projects now sit inside a single metro airshed and a single stressed watershed.

El Paso did not drift into the data center business. It chose it, on specific dates, through specific votes. On December 5, 2023, under then Mayor Oscar Leeser, the Council unanimously approved economic development agreements with Wurldwide LLC, a Meta affiliate, for a site in Northeast El Paso. Of the representatives serving today, only two were in the room for that vote: District 8's Chris Canales and District 6's Art Fierro.19 Meta broke ground in October 2025, and in March 2026 announced it was raising its investment more than sixfold.79

CORRIDOR follows three developments across the El Paso and Santa Teresa corridor. They differ in jurisdiction and disclosure, which is exactly why they belong in one frame.

Project A

Meta / Wurldwide LLC

The anchor. One gigawatt, 10 billion dollars, online 2028. Five construction phases, phase one underway, first portion expected operational July 2026.

Northeast El Paso, TX
Project B

Project Jupiter / Acoma LLC

Under construction across the state line in Doña Ana County, drawing on the same regional grid and labor market under a different set of rules.

Santa Teresa, NM
Project C

Fort Bliss / federal site

Recently announced. City staff name it alongside Meta as a source of added emissions, but it sits on federal land outside ordinary city review.

Fort Bliss, TX

City staff have estimated that powering these facilities would raise El Paso's carbon dioxide emissions by about twenty one percent over a 2019 baseline.12 The three projects share air, water, transmission, and a construction workforce. No single permitting process sees all three at once. CORRIDOR exists to hold them in one view.

02

The deal, read closely

The headline is investment and jobs. The contract is an abatement and a floor of fifty.

Strip away the announcements and read the instrument. Under the 2023 Chapter 380 agreement, if Meta invests at least 800 million dollars, the City abates up to eighty percent of its property taxes for fifteen years. El Paso County layered on its own abatement. The El Paso Times estimated the combined package could be worth up to 110 million dollars.2 On top of that, the City allocated up to 5 million dollars in economic development funds to help defray the cost of the project's connection to U.S. Highway 54.22

80%
city property tax abated, 15 years, if 800M invested
$110M
est. value of combined city + county package
50
permanent jobs the contract actually requires
300+
operational jobs Meta now says it will create
$10B
stated investment, up from 1.5B in March 2026

The gap between the last two figures is the whole accountability problem in one line. Meta says it will employ more than three hundred people once the campus is complete, and more than four thousand at peak construction. The agreement obligates it to fifty.35 A promise is not a covenant. When the abatement is locked for fifteen years and the binding employment floor is fifty, the public's leverage to convert the larger number into a guarantee has already been spent.

There is a real point on the booster side that honest accounting has to keep. The parcel was previously city owned land, managed by El Paso Water and the Public Service Board, transferred to the City for industrial development before Meta ever appeared. As public land it generated no property tax at all. So even an eighty percent abatement leaves the remaining twenty percent, plus the land base and sales tax on construction materials, as revenue the rolls did not have before.15 The deal is not free money for nothing. But that framing, public land versus private use, is also the trap, and we return to it in Section 06.

03

Water, in a desert

Permitted for 1.5 million gallons a day. Estimated at 400,000. The distance between those numbers is the argument.

El Paso Water supplies cooling water to the Meta site under an agreement permitting up to 1.5 million gallons per day. The utility's own estimate of actual average use is far lower, around 400,000 gallons per day, roughly 146 million gallons a year. CEO John Balliew has been precise about why: below 86 degrees the facility uses essentially nothing for cooling, and only a 117 degree day would push it toward the permitted maximum. At 400,000 gallons a day the data center would not crack the utility's top ten customers; it lands around number eleven, behind schools and hospitals.2025

1.5M
gal/day the water agreement permits
~400K
gal/day utility estimates as the average
No. 11
rank among El Paso Water customers at that level
200%
of water consumed that Meta pledges to restore

Balliew has stressed that Meta pays the highest large user rate with no special rate and no rebate, and that the utility's 2026 budget and roughly twelve percent rate increase were not driven by the data center.23 Meta, for its part, has pledged to restore two hundred percent of the water it consumes through Rio Grande watershed projects, micro irrigation upgrades for pecan orchards, and partnerships to bring running water to colonias, projects it expects to restore more than 177 million gallons a year once implemented.26 Taken at face value, that is a genuine commitment, and a better one than most host communities secure.

Two facts keep the concern alive anyway. First, this is a city that in the same window suffered a 36 inch water main rupture leaving roughly 100,000 Northeast and Central residents without adequate pressure, under a boil water notice.23 Reliability, not just supply, is the lived issue. Second, and more important, the water figures above describe the original 1.5 billion dollar facility. Neither Meta nor the utility has released an updated forecast for the 10 billion dollar, one gigawatt campus, which observers expect could climb toward a million gallons a day.22 The number the public is debating is the old number.

The water figure most often quoted in public is for a facility that no longer exists at that scale.

04

Power, and the air that pays for it

A gigawatt of constant demand does not come from the existing grid. It comes from a new gas plant built to order.

To serve Meta, El Paso Electric is building a dedicated facility: a roughly 500 million dollar, 366 megawatt natural gas plant, developed with the generator company Enchanted Rock and reported to use hundreds of small gas fired units.1821 That plant carries an air permit authorizing significant annual emissions, including on the order of 68 tons of nitrogen oxides, a precursor to the ozone El Paso already struggles with.18

366 MW
dedicated gas plant being built for the site
~$500M
plant cost, initially covered by Meta
+21%
city CO2 vs 2019, per city staff estimate
68 tons
NOx/yr the plant is permitted to emit

Here the structure matters as much as the chemistry. Meta states that it pays the full cost of serving the data center, plans to add more than 5,000 megawatts of clean energy to the Texas grid, and intends to match one hundred percent of its electricity use.4 Opponents, reading El Paso Electric's filings, counter that the plant's cost is structured to shift to all ratepayers after an initial period Meta covers, and they note that the original agreement explicitly stated Meta "shall not be obligated to pursue" the solar and alternative energy it had floated.921 A pledge to match clean energy and a contractual release from having to build it can coexist on the same page. Which one governs in 2030 is the open question.

05

The two cases, fairly

Accountability work earns its authority by stating the other side at full strength. Here it is, both ways.

The case for
  • Real tax base on land that had none. Public land off the rolls becomes a taxable industrial site, with the non abated share, the land, and construction sales tax flowing to local services.
  • High wage anchor and signal. The Borderplex Alliance argues the jobs are transformational and that Meta marks El Paso as a place serious capital will come.
  • A revenue customer for the utility. Constant data center load is steady cash flow that residential customers do not provide, the utility's CEO argues, part of a larger growth vision.
  • Costs borne by Meta, by its account. Full water and energy costs, 8 million dollars in local infrastructure, 130 plus local vendors, a 200 percent water restoration pledge, and bill assistance funding.
  • A track record elsewhere. The mayor of Los Lunas, New Mexico, reports more than 2.5 billion dollars of Meta investment over a decade and 6 million dollars to local schools and nonprofits.
The case against
  • A floor of fifty. Fifteen years of abatement are locked against a binding requirement of fifty permanent jobs, while the public debates the 300 figure it cannot enforce.
  • Scarce water, committed first. Up to 1.5 million permitted gallons a day in a desert with recent main breaks and boil notices, and no released forecast for the larger campus.
  • A gas plant and its airshed. A new 366 MW fossil plant and a projected 21 percent rise in city CO2, in a region already out of step with its own climate plan.
  • Cost shifted to ratepayers. Critics read the utility's filings to mean residents eventually carry plant costs, after Meta's initial period, even as bills already rise.
  • Decided behind the public. The terms were set in 2023; transparency demands, including from Congresswoman Veronica Escobar, came after, not before, the leverage was gone.

Both columns are true at once. That is not indecision. It is the actual shape of the problem: a deal can deliver real revenue and real jobs and still be a poor trade if the inputs it consumes were worth more in another use, and if the public never got to price them.

06

The analysis

Net benefit does not hinge on how big the investment is. It hinges on how the contract is built.

Load bearing finding

The decisive variable is deal structure, and the single most decisive term is whether the scarce inputs are taxed and bound by enforceable benefits, or abated and released. El Paso wrote an eighty percent, fifteen year abatement against a fifty job floor. That structure, not the ten billion dollar number, determines the return to the community.

There is a useful contrast in the public record. In jurisdictions that tax the servers and equipment heavily rather than abating them, data centers have become large net contributors to local budgets, because the taxable value sits in the constantly refreshed hardware, not the land. El Paso took the other path: abate the improvements, keep the land base. Whether that path pays depends entirely on enforceable floors, escalators, and benefit terms, the very things a fifty job minimum does not provide.

The collective blind spot

Opportunity cost. Because the parcel was public land already off the tax rolls, every comparison defaults to "data center versus nothing," which makes any private use look like pure upside. That framing hides the real question: was this the best use of that specific water allocation, that grid capacity, that publicly held land, against every alternative the City could have pursued with the same scarce inputs? A debate framed as "something versus nothing" can never surface the better something.

The mechanism that lets a weak structure get signed is information asymmetry. El Paso's history of non disclosure on these projects, and the still unreleased water forecast for the expanded campus, mean the public consistently debates last year's numbers while the operative terms sit in instruments few have read. The developer always knows the real figures. The community rarely does, until the vote is behind it.

What is already changing

The City's May 2026 policy direction is the structural fix arriving in real time: no incentives for future hyperscale projects, binding community benefit agreements instead of abatements, special permits, and a pause on selling public land for this use.17 That is the correct lever. It does not touch the Meta deal, which is the point: the fix is for the next one, and the next one is already announced at Fort Bliss and across the line at Santa Teresa.

CORRIDOR's role follows from this directly. Keep the executed terms in daylight, track the fifty job floor against the three hundred job promise as the campus opens, publish the campus scale water forecast the moment it exists, and hold the community benefit framework to enforceable language rather than aspiration. Accountability here is not opposition. It is making the trade legible enough that the public can judge it on the real numbers. The public record behind this analysis is live: you can ask the CORRIDOR record directly.

07

What to watch

Seven indicators will tell you whether the bet is paying, long before the rhetoric does.

01
First phase goes live, July 2026

Watch whether reported hiring tracks toward 300 or settles near the contractual 50.

02
Campus scale water forecast

The 400,000 gallon figure is for the old facility. The updated number for the gigawatt campus is the one that matters.

03
Who pays for the 366 MW plant

Track the El Paso Electric proceeding to see if and when plant costs move from Meta to ratepayers.

04
The clean energy match, verified

Pledged 5,000 MW of clean energy versus a contractual release from pursuing it. Watch what actually interconnects.

05
November election

Several incumbents who declined to reopen the deal face voters. Recall mechanics under the City Charter are already being discussed.

06
Community benefit agreements with teeth

Whether the new framework produces enforceable floors and escalators, or aspirational language, on Fort Bliss and the next applicant.

07
Project Jupiter terms across the line

Santa Teresa operates under New Mexico rules. The corridor's total water and grid draw is the sum, not any one project.

// Method and limits

How this paper was built, and what it cannot claim

This field paper combines three passes: a multi source research sweep, an independent CORRIDOR analysis of the deal structure, and a live verification of every load bearing figure against primary local reporting and the City of El Paso's own materials, conducted June 18, 2026. Every number in the stat blocks was confirmed against a dated source listed below.

Read the figures by tier. Verified the deal date and terms, the 50 job floor, the abatement structure, the 1.5 million permitted and 400,000 estimated water figures, the council votes, and the gas plant scale and permit. Reported, evolving the 10 billion dollar investment, 300 and 4,000 job projections, and the 200 percent water restoration pledge, all from Meta and not yet independently realized. Contested the eventual shift of plant cost to ratepayers, the campus scale water draw, and whether clean energy commitments will be met.

A note on stance. This paper presents the booster case at full strength and credits genuine commitments where the record supports them. It also takes a position: that deal structure, not investment size, is the decisive variable, and that the public priced its scarce inputs too late. That is an analytical judgment, argued from the evidence, not a neutral recitation. Readers weighing public testimony or policy should confirm any figure against the cited primary source before relying on it, particularly the New Mexico and federal projects, which sit outside the El Paso records cited here.

References

  1. Plan to run El Paso data center on natural gas sparks concern. Inside Climate News / The Texas Tribune, Jan 26 2026. texastribune.org
  2. Inside the power deal behind Meta's El Paso data center, now at 10 billion. El Paso Matters, Mar 29 2026. elpasomatters.org
  3. Meta to spend 10 billion on applied intelligence data center in El Paso, 1GW by 2028. CNBC, Mar 26 2026. cnbc.com
  4. El Paso City Council rejects effort to end Meta data center agreement. El Paso Matters, Jun 9 2026. elpasomatters.org
  5. Meta increases investment in El Paso data center to 10 billion. Bloomberg, Mar 26 2026. bloomberg.com
  6. Big things are happening, El Paso. Meta Data Centers (company blog), Mar 2026. datacenters.atmeta.com
  7. Proposal seeks stricter oversight, no tax breaks for future applied intelligence data centers. El Paso Matters, May 21 2026. elpasomatters.org
  8. El Paso City Council votes to stop recruiting data center projects. KTSM / Border Report, May 26 2026. borderreport.com
  9. Data Centers (policy framework and project facts). City of El Paso, official page, 2026. elpasotexas.gov/data-centers
  10. City of El Paso releases draft policy framework to regulate future hyperscale data centers. CBS4 Local, May 2026. cbs4local.com
  11. El Paso city representative seeks to terminate Meta data center deal. El Paso Matters, Jun 2 2026. elpasomatters.org
  12. El Paso can't cancel Meta data center tax breaks, top officials say. El Paso Matters, Jun 3 2026. elpasomatters.org
  13. How much water will Meta's El Paso data center use? El Paso Matters, Dec 2 2025. elpasomatters.org
  14. El Paso residents rally against Meta data center agreement. KISS El Paso (commentary; figures corroborated against cited reporting), Jun 2026. kisselpaso.com
  15. El Paso City Council to start work on limiting datacenters next week. El Paso Herald Post, May 22 2026. elpasoheraldpost.com
  16. El Paso Water adopts 1.2 billion budget with rate increase. El Paso Matters, Jan 14 2026. elpasomatters.org
  17. El Paso Water CEO: Meta data center not in top 10 water users. KTSM, Dec 28 2025. ktsm.com
  18. Meta touts 10B El Paso data center, water and grid pledges as council weighs incentives. CBS4 Local, Jun 2026. cbs4local.com

CORRIDOR is a civic accountability research instrument from Celaya Solutions Research. This field paper is independent analysis for public information, not legal, financial, or investment advice. Figures are current to June 18, 2026 and should be reconfirmed against the cited primary sources before use in testimony, comment, or reporting.

// Tool · Scenario model

Impact simulator

Set which projects come online and when, then scrub the timeline to model corridor water draw, air emissions, the household utility bill and the share of income it consumes, and basin stress. The bill model counts only projects on El Paso Electric's grid; the water model counts all of them. Every coefficient is exposed, sourced, and editable.

Interactive model. Outputs depend on the assumptions set in the controls. Reconfirm figures against primary sources before relying on them.

CELAYA SOLUTIONS RESEARCH / CORRIDOREL PASO / SANTA TERESA